Modeling water resources and variability in the Lower Jordan River Basin: Learning from the present for the future (Briefing 2.8)

Abstract

TRAIN-ZIN, a hydrological model developed for semi-arid areas, supports water management decisions by providing spatially-distributed estimations of all water balance and wadi runoff elements (Gunkel & Lange 2011). An application in the Lower Jordan River Basin (LJRB) provides an inaugural basin-wide view of the availability of water resources without human intervention. By analyzing the natural variability in the basin given by a wet, an average, and a dry season, the two most significant findings are: (1) Percolation and surface (wadi) runoff are highly variable in extreme events and considerably reduced during drought years. In contrast, the amount of water lost by evaporation is more constant.(2) Present-day variability is so high that that of future seasons will likely be within the same range, even under climate change conditions. A combination of the results from present-day climatic variability with present and future water demand can therefore be used to optimize water management in the region.