Mathematical Economics of Human Capital in the Middle East in Long-Run Perspective

Abstract

This thesis studies the human capital development of the Middle East over the long run, covering the period 1500 to 2010. It analyses trends in the human capital of different countries of the region, focusing on the 19th and 20th centuries and enabling an overview of numeracy in the Middle East since the late Middle Ages. Trends in education and human capital are studied to analyze the human capital development of the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia. The hypothesis of experiencing a “Curse of Resources” is tested in the Middle East and South Asia during the 19th and 20th centuries. We test whether the extraction of oil influenced the region’s human capital negatively. An overview of numeracy development in the Ottoman, Turkish and Arabic provinces is given as well. We use the age heaping technique and calculate the numeracy levels of the inhabitants of different provinces in today’s Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Palestine; to conclude that religion played a role in determining human capital. The effect of secularism on human capital in Turkey is discussed in addition to the influence of the reforms that took place in Egypt in the 19th century. In this thesis; the influences of religion, gender, occupation, ethnicity, secularism and oil production on human capital are tested for the Middle East. In addition to the years of schooling, the age heaping technique is the core method used to measure numeracy within the regions studied. Various sets of census data from the region are used throughout the analysis, relying on basic numerical skills level as an indicator of human capital.